SOCIOECONOMIC PREDICTORS OF EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS IN DEVELOPING NATIONS

Abstract

The outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases (EID) occurring in developing nations are occasionally described as largely biological or ecological in nature, but the time and spread of the disease happen under the impact of socioeconomic conditions that determine the exposure, vulnerability and response ability.  This paper looks at the socioeconomic elements that best predict the frequency and severity of EID outbreaks in developing nations where a cross-national, multi-year analytical framework is used, which is the combination of outbreak rates and other standardized measures of development, governments, demographics and health systems.  Multivariable analyses including variations in the structure and size of populations among the countries demonstrates that the possibility of an outbreak is always significantly greater when rapid urbanization and a high density of people are combined with continuous poverty and inequality during the years. This implies that diseases spread easily due to crowding and living in poor conditions.  Warring countries and those with weak institutions experience more outbreaks and sick people. Conversely, those countries that had greater governance and state capacity experience fewer outbreaks and superior means of preventing their further proliferation.  Signs of health system preparedness, particularly increased per capita health expenditures, expanded immunization rates, and more accessible basic services, have preventive influence that reduces the incidence and intensity of outbreaks.  The education and human capital measures also have a stabilizing relationship, which is in line with improved risk communication and an increased number of individuals seeking treatment.  Predictive performance improves significantly when socioeconomic indicators of vulnerability are added to health-system and governance parameters. This demonstrates that they are applicable in warning and preparing early and targeting.  The findings highlight the importance of the argument that EID reduction in developing environments is not only possible by surveillance and pathogen-focused interventions, but policy changes that address poverty, urban vulnerabilities, and institutional resilience, in addition to investing in primary health systems.